What the 1990 Insane Missouri Earthquake Panic Taught Us

February is earthquake awareness month in Missouri. This present day information effort has brought to mind one of the weirdest events I can remember in my birth state. The infamous prediction of a climatologist that a major earthquake would strike southern Missouri in late 1990. There are lots of teachable moments from that failed prediction.

It all began when Iben Browning predicted a major New Madrid Fault earthquake would strike on December 3, 1990 drawing press from all over the world to Missouri

A quick history lesson first. Iben Browning was a real scientist who worked in many fields including artificial intelligence and bio-engineering. Wikipedia confirms that Iben "wrote four books, held 90 patents, and served as a climatologist and business consultant to Paine Webber in various scientific and engineering fields". He became interested in climatology which led him to believe that strong tidal forces, driven by the alignment of the Earth, Moon, and Sun, would trigger seismic activity specifically on the New Madrid Fault and he pinpointed December 3, 1990 as the day when catastrophe would happen.

I remember as we got closer to that date in December of 1990, international press began to assemble in and around New Madrid, Missouri and it became a circus. Songs were written and bands performed tributes to Iben Browning for putting New Madrid on the map. The local PBS station even produced a helpful albeit a bit dated earthquake survival guide that has since gone viral on TikTok.

What did his failed New Madrid earthquake prediction teach us?

The fallout from what Iben Browning tried to do has been both good and bad for the more than three decades since it happened. While it did raise awareness about the potential strength of a major New Madrid Fault quake, it led to much ridicule of anyone who tries to remind about emergency preparation. The USGS continues to say that there is no such thing as predicting earthquakes. I have kept track of New Madrid seismic zone activity for years and pass along quakes that are in unusual places or that come in swarms. I can attest to the fact that I get a lot of ridicule for even doing that and I can point back to Iben's doomed 1990 prediction for part of the reason why.

I'm hopeful that all of these reminders during earthquake awareness month in February will inspire everyone to at least be somewhat prepared. The Missouri Department of Natural Resources says there's a 10% chance of a magnitude 7 or greater New Madrid quake in the next 50 years, but the USGS says there's a 25 to 40% chance of a magnitude 6 or greater quake during that same time period which could also disrupt life for days if not weeks in Missouri. Whenever a major quake impacts Missouri, it will happen with no warning whatsoever. That's the ultimate lesson from the great Missouri earthquake panic of 1990.