Missouri & Illinois Severe Storm Chances Just Doubled for Friday

Batten down the hatches as we get closer to the end of the week as severe storm chances for parts of Missouri and Illinois just doubled according to national weather forecasters.

Hopefully by now you know that both Missouri and Illinois are right in the middle of what could be explosive thunderstorm development beginning Friday, March 14, 2025. When I first shared that warning from the NOAA Storm Prediction Center, that chance was 15%. The new outlook is terrifying.

What was a slight 15% chance of severe weather development has now become 30% for the southeastern half of Missouri and southern Illinois, too.

What do these numbers really mean for Missouri and Illinois storm development for Friday?

From past experience, you are almost guaranteed to see storms in Missouri and Illinois on Friday. The only real question is how severe will they be and exactly where will they impact. It's rare for the NOAA Storm Prediction Center to issue warnings 6 days ahead of time like they did this past weekend. The fact that the chance of severe weather is now trending way up in Missouri and Illinois should be cause for concern.

What does the National Weather Service have to say about this storm chance?

They are on-board and already saying that strong storms are likely Friday for much of Missouri and Illinois.

The point of this is to make sure you are weather aware on Friday, March 14 and be ready for any warnings issued by the National Weather Service. Is there a chance these storms could weaken and not be an event? Sure. Would I count on that happening? At this point, NO WAY.