Winter’s Last Gasp? Missouri in Direct Path of Major Storm

There's a well-known saying that if March comes in like a lion, it will go out like a lamb. That idea might get tested this weekend as computer models hint that Missouri could be in the direct path of a major winter storm right as March begins.

No matter how many times I say this, many will not pay attention when I say that I'm not issuing a forecast or making a prediction. All I want to do is make you aware that if you live in the northern half of Missouri especially, there's a chance that you could be impacted by a major winter storm starting Sunday. Let's start with what the National Weather Service is saying about this potential storm as of today. According to their "wintry precipitation this weekend" update today, their confidence is high there will be wintry precipitation in Missouri this weekend, but their confidence is low about specific impacted areas or precipitation amounts.

The two computer models that forecasters look at often do NOT agree on precipitation amounts, but they do seem to agree on the path. According to Pivotal Weather's most recent map, the GFS is showing major snow accumulations over the northern half of Missouri with sleet/ice potential in the central part of the state just south of interstate 70.

The European model mostly agrees on the storms track, but shows lesser snow accumulation amounts.

As of right now, the National Weather Service in St. Louis has NOT issued any kind of winter weather advisory or warning and there is no prediction about snow amounts, but one forecast I looked at for Hannibal from the NWS does say snow impacts are likely Sunday night carrying over into Monday morning. The storm will likely begin as rain then transition to snow as temperatures drop below freezing Sunday night. The timing of this storm will be crucial in determining whether this is a mixed precipitation event with little snow accumulation or a significant snow/ice problem.

I expect that you'll hear the official word from the National Weather Service over the next 24 to 48 hours from now. All you really need to know is you should pay attention to their forecasts as the models start to agree on what's coming. It could be a false alarm or winter's last gasp before the warmer Spring temperatures arrive to stay.